Kortrijk
Sporting Charleroi
The model leans Sporting Charleroi at 37%. Expected goals: Kortrijk 1.12, Sporting Charleroi 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Kortrijk won 0 of their last 5; Sporting Charleroi won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kortrijk | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Sporting Charleroi | 38% | 2.62 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sporting Charleroi. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.12 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kortrijk 0| Kortrijk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 20% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.