Hearts
Rayo Vallecano
The model leans Hearts at 43%. Expected goals: Hearts 1.32, Rayo Vallecano 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 58%. Hearts won 3 of their last 6; Rayo Vallecano won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hearts | 47% | 2.13 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Rayo Vallecano | 22% | 4.51 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hearts. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.5%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–011.8%
- 2–010.2%
- 0–19.7%
- 2–18.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hearts −0.5| Hearts line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 26% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 28% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.