FC Twente
Aberdeen
The model leans FC Twente at 56%. Expected goals: FC Twente 2.03, Aberdeen 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. FC Twente won 4 of their last 6; Aberdeen won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Twente | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Aberdeen | 13% | 7.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Twente. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.03 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.1%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Twente −1| FC Twente line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.