FC Twente
PEC Zwolle
The model leans FC Twente at 67%. Expected goals: FC Twente 2.82, PEC Zwolle 0.94. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 58%. FC Twente won 4 of their last 6; PEC Zwolle won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Twente | 76% | 1.32 | 1.27 | 74% | +1 |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.56 | 6.50 | 14% | +1 |
| 2PEC Zwolle | 9% | 11.00 | 8.50 | 11% | −2 |
Pick: FC Twente. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.82 – 0.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 2–09.3%
- 3–08.8%
- 2–18.7%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–06.6%
- 1–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Twente −2| FC Twente line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| -1 | 56% | 20% | 24% |
| -0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| 0 | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.