FC Heidenheim
VfL Osnabrück
The model leans VfL Osnabrück at 38%. Expected goals: FC Heidenheim 1.28, VfL Osnabrück 1.48. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. FC Heidenheim won 2 of their last 6; VfL Osnabrück won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Heidenheim | 32% | 3.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
| 2VfL Osnabrück | 41% | 2.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: VfL Osnabrück. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.28 – 1.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–26.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Heidenheim 0| FC Heidenheim line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 19% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.