VfL Osnabrück
Magdeburg
The model leans VfL Osnabrück at 54%. Expected goals: VfL Osnabrück 2.11, Magdeburg 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 56%. VfL Osnabrück won 1 of their last 4; Magdeburg won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1VfL Osnabrück | 62% | 1.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Magdeburg | 16% | 6.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: VfL Osnabrück. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.11 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 1–09.4%
- 3–17.0%
- 3–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: VfL Osnabrück −1| VfL Osnabrück line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.