Bayern München
VfB Stuttgart
The model leans Bayern München at 68%. Expected goals: Bayern München 3.51, VfB Stuttgart 1.30. Over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 71%. Bayern München won 6 of their last 6; VfB Stuttgart won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayern München | 78% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 77% | +1 |
| XDraw | 12% | 8.05 | 7.00 | 13% | −1 |
| 2VfB Stuttgart | 10% | 10.49 | 10.00 | 9% | 0 |
Pick: Bayern München. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.51 – 1.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 2.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 3–17.7%
- 4–16.8%
- 2–16.6%
- 3–05.9%
- 4–05.2%
- 2–05.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 70% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayern München −2| Bayern München line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| -1 | 61% | 17% | 22% |
| -0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| 0 | 78% | 12% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 6% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.