RB Leipzig
Borussia Mönchengladbach
The model leans RB Leipzig at 53%. Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.09, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%. RB Leipzig won 1 of their last 3; Borussia Mönchengladbach won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1RB Leipzig | 60% | 1.67 | 1.55 | 61% | −1 |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.46 | 4.50 | 21% | +1 |
| 2Borussia Mönchengladbach | 18% | 5.69 | 5.25 | 18% | 0 |
Pick: RB Leipzig. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.09 – 1.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–08.9%
- 3–16.9%
- 3–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: RB Leipzig −1| RB Leipzig line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 21% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.