Borussia Mönchengladbach
Aston Villa
The model leans Aston Villa at 51%. Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.94, Aston Villa 1.86. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Borussia Mönchengladbach won 3 of their last 4; Aston Villa won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Borussia Mönchengladbach | 18% | 5.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.08 | – | – | – |
| 2Aston Villa | 58% | 1.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Aston Villa. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.94 – 1.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 0–111.3%
- 1–110.6%
- 0–210.5%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.5%
- 1–36.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aston Villa −1| Borussia Mönchengladbach line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 12% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| +1.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.