Walsall
Aston Villa
The model leans Aston Villa at 68%. Expected goals: Walsall 0.66, Aston Villa 2.65. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 54%. Walsall won 3 of their last 6; Aston Villa won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Walsall | 6% | 15.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Aston Villa | 79% | 1.27 | – | – | – |
Pick: Aston Villa. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.66 – 2.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 0–212.8%
- 0–311.3%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–47.5%
- 1–37.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aston Villa −2| Walsall line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 5% | 93% |
| -0.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| 0 | 7% | 13% | 80% |
| +0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| +1 | 20% | 21% | 58% |
| +1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.