Hamburger SV
Everton
The model leans Everton at 50%. Expected goals: Hamburger SV 0.93, Everton 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. Hamburger SV won 3 of their last 6; Everton won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hamburger SV | 21% | 4.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
| 2Everton | 51% | 1.96 | – | – | – |
Pick: Everton. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.93 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.2%
- 1–07.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Everton −0.5| Hamburger SV line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 15% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 25% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.