Everton
Crystal Palace
The model leans Everton at 38%. Expected goals: Everton 1.31, Crystal Palace 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Everton won 3 of their last 6; Crystal Palace won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Everton | 41% | 2.43 | 2.25 | 42% | −1 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.30 | 3.30 | 29% | +2 |
| 2Crystal Palace | 29% | 3.51 | 3.20 | 30% | −1 |
Pick: Everton. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.31 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 2–08.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Everton 0| Everton line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 18% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.