Toulouse
Hamburger SV
The model leans Toulouse at 43%. Expected goals: Toulouse 1.50, Hamburger SV 1.04. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%. Toulouse won 1 of their last 5; Hamburger SV won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Toulouse | 47% | 2.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Hamburger SV | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: Toulouse. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.50 – 1.04| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–18.2%
- 0–07.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Toulouse −0.5| Toulouse line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.