Brest
Toulouse
The model leans Brest at 36%. Expected goals: Brest 1.37, Toulouse 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Brest won 0 of their last 6; Toulouse won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brest | 38% | 2.65 | 2.50 | 38% | 0 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.50 | 3.20 | 30% | −1 |
| 2Toulouse | 34% | 2.97 | 2.95 | 32% | +2 |
Pick: Brest. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.37 – 1.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 41% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brest 0| Brest line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.