Brest
Concarneau
The model leans Brest at 62%. Expected goals: Brest 2.11, Concarneau 0.64. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 58%. Brest won 0 of their last 6; Concarneau won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brest | 71% | 1.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.97 | – | – | – |
| 2Concarneau | 9% | 10.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Brest. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.11 – 0.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.3%
- 1–013.5%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brest −1.5| Brest line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| -1 | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 8% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.