Concarneau
Lorient
The model leans Lorient at 61%. Expected goals: Concarneau 0.65, Lorient 2.06. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 57%. Concarneau won 1 of their last 6; Lorient won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Concarneau | 10% | 10.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.81 | – | – | – |
| 2Lorient | 69% | 1.44 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lorient. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.65 – 2.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 0–214.1%
- 0–113.7%
- 0–39.7%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.9%
- 0–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 43% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lorient −1.5| Concarneau line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 8% | 89% |
| -0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| 0 | 11% | 19% | 70% |
| +0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| +1 | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| +1.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.