Nice
Lorient
The model leans Lorient at 40%. Expected goals: Nice 1.14, Lorient 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. Nice won 1 of their last 5; Lorient won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nice | 28% | 3.52 | 2.35 | 40% | −11 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.51 | 3.10 | 30% | −1 |
| 2Lorient | 43% | 2.32 | 3.05 | 31% | +13 |
Pick: Lorient. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.14 – 1.45| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–27.9%
- 0–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lorient −0.5| Nice line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 23% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.