Lorient
Troyes
The model leans Lorient at 44%. Expected goals: Lorient 1.64, Troyes 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Lorient won 2 of their last 4; Troyes won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lorient | 48% | 2.10 | 1.90 | 49% | −2 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | 3.30 | 28% | −2 |
| 2Troyes | 26% | 3.91 | 4.20 | 22% | +3 |
Pick: Lorient. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–17.0%
- 1–26.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lorient −0.5| Lorient line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.