Real Oviedo
Leganes
The model leans Draw at 34%. Expected goals: Real Oviedo 0.93, Leganes 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 67%. Real Oviedo won 1 of their last 3; Leganes won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Oviedo | 37% | 2.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.72 | – | – | – |
| 2Leganes | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.93 – 0.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 0–018.6%
- 1–017.3%
- 0–114.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 2–08.0%
- 2–16.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 62% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Oviedo 0| Real Oviedo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 24% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 34% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 20% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.