Real Madrid
Leganes
The model leans Real Madrid at 70%. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.78, Leganes 0.51. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%. Real Madrid won 3 of their last 4; Leganes won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Madrid | 84% | 1.19 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 12% | 8.14 | – | – | – |
| 2Leganes | 4% | 25.19 | – | – | – |
Pick: Real Madrid. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 84%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 96%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.78 – 0.51| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.5%
- 3–013.4%
- 1–010.4%
- 4–09.3%
- 2–17.4%
- 3–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Madrid −2| Real Madrid line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| -1 | 65% | 20% | 16% |
| -0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| 0 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +0.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
| +1 | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.