Real Madrid
Fiorentina
The model leans Real Madrid at 68%. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.65, Fiorentina 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 51%. Real Madrid won 3 of their last 4; Fiorentina won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Madrid | 77% | 1.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Fiorentina | 7% | 13.68 | – | – | – |
Pick: Real Madrid. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.65 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.9%
- 3–010.5%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.7%
- 4–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Madrid −2| Real Madrid line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| -1 | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| -0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| 0 | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.