Watford
Fiorentina
The model leans Fiorentina at 50%. Expected goals: Watford 0.97, Fiorentina 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 50%. Watford won 2 of their last 6; Fiorentina won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Watford | 23% | 4.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Fiorentina | 49% | 2.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fiorentina. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.97 – 1.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.5%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.2%
- 1–07.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fiorentina −0.5| Watford line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 15% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.