Schalke 04
Real Madrid
The model leans Real Madrid at 61%. Expected goals: Schalke 04 0.78, Real Madrid 2.22. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Schalke 04 won 2 of their last 5; Real Madrid won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Schalke 04 | 11% | 9.21 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Madrid | 69% | 1.44 | – | – | – |
Pick: Real Madrid. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.78 – 2.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 0–212.2%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–39.1%
- 1–18.6%
- 1–37.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Madrid −1.5| Schalke 04 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 8% | 88% |
| -0.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| 0 | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| +0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| +1 | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| +1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.