Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Erzgebirge Aue
2–4
Won
Schalke 04
The model leans Schalke 04 at 50%. Expected goals: Erzgebirge Aue 1.12, Schalke 04 1.84. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match22
25
53
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Erzgebirge Aue | 22% | 4.56 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Schalke 04 | 53% | 1.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Schalke 04. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.12 – 1.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–36.0%
- 2–16.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Schalke 04 −0.5| Erzgebirge Aue line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 14% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.