Real Madrid
Málaga
The model leans Real Madrid at 64%. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.76, Málaga 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 60%. Real Madrid won 3 of their last 4; Málaga won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, 1xBet_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Madrid | 74% | 1.36 | 1.10 | 89% | −16 |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.22 | 13.50 | 7% | +9 |
| 2Málaga | 10% | 9.62 | 30.00 | 3% | +7 |
Pick: Real Madrid. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.76 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.9%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–18.2%
- 3–08.2%
- 1–16.4%
- 1–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Madrid −1.5| Real Madrid line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| -1 | 54% | 20% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 7% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.