Getafe
Racing Santander
The model leans Getafe at 37%. Expected goals: Getafe 1.22, Racing Santander 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%. Getafe won 2 of their last 5; Racing Santander won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Getafe | 38% | 2.60 | 2.20 | 43% | −5 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.22 | 3.10 | 31% | 0 |
| 2Racing Santander | 31% | 3.27 | 3.60 | 26% | +4 |
Pick: Getafe. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–110.9%
- 0–010.2%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Getafe 0| Getafe line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 22% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.