Benfica
Villarreal
The model leans Benfica at 50%. Expected goals: Benfica 1.84, Villarreal 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. Benfica won 3 of their last 5; Villarreal won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Benfica | 53% | 1.89 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Villarreal | 22% | 4.54 | – | – | – |
Pick: Benfica. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.84 – 1.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–08.7%
- 3–16.0%
- 1–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Benfica −0.5| Benfica line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.