Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
K-League All Stars
1–3
Lost
Manchester City
The model leans Draw at 50%. Expected goals: K-League All Stars 0.58, Manchester City 0.05. Over 2.5 goals 97%, both teams to score 98%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match42
55
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1K-League All Stars | 42% | 2.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 55% | 1.81 | – | – | – |
| 2Manchester City | 3% | 38.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 97%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.58 – 0.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 13% | 87% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 97% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams to score | Yes2% | No98% |
Most likely scores
- 0–053.4%
- 1–030.8%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–12.7%
- 3–01.7%
- 1–11.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 74% · BTTS No 66%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: K-League All Stars −0.5| K-League All Stars line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 31% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 55% | 3% |
| +0.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
| +1 | 97% | 3% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.