Cagliari
Modena
The model leans Cagliari at 50%. Expected goals: Cagliari 1.39, Modena 0.72. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 60%. Cagliari won 2 of their last 5; Modena won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cagliari | 52% | 1.94 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Modena | 18% | 5.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cagliari. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 0.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.9%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–18.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cagliari −0.5| Cagliari line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 14% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.