Cremonese
Modena
The model leans Cremonese at 37%. Expected goals: Cremonese 1.04, Modena 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 63%. Cremonese won 2 of their last 3; Modena won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cremonese | 39% | 2.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.88 | – | – | – |
| 2Modena | 26% | 3.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cremonese. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.04 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.4%
- 0–015.9%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.8%
- 2–08.5%
- 2–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cremonese 0| Cremonese line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 24% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 32% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.