Cremonese
Sampdoria
The model leans Cremonese at 50%. Expected goals: Cremonese 1.23, Sampdoria 0.61. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 66%. Cremonese won 2 of their last 3; Sampdoria won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cremonese | 50% | 1.99 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Sampdoria | 17% | 5.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cremonese. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 0.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.5%
- 0–015.8%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.7%
- 2–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cremonese −0.5| Cremonese line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 28% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 30% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 14% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.