Parma
Sampdoria
The model leans Parma at 50%. Expected goals: Parma 1.18, Sampdoria 0.47. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 73%. Parma won 0 of their last 5; Sampdoria won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Parma | 53% | 1.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.98 | – | – | – |
| 2Sampdoria | 14% | 7.34 | – | – | – |
Pick: Parma. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.18 – 0.47| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes26% | No74% |
Most likely scores
- 1–022.7%
- 0–019.3%
- 2–013.4%
- 1–110.6%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 67% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Parma −0.5| Parma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 30% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 31% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 12% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.