Parma
Iraklis
The model leans Parma at 41%. Expected goals: Parma 1.16, Iraklis 0.71. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 64%. Parma won 0 of their last 5; Iraklis won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Parma | 45% | 2.22 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.98 | – | – | – |
| 2Iraklis | 21% | 4.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: Parma. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.16 – 0.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.9%
- 0–015.5%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Parma −0.5| Parma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 16% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.