Parma
Cremonese
The model leans Parma at 39%. Expected goals: Parma 1.05, Cremonese 0.69. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 67%. Parma won 0 of their last 5; Cremonese won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Parma | 42% | 2.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Cremonese | 22% | 4.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Parma. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.05 – 0.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.5%
- 0–017.7%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–112.1%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Parma −0.5| Parma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 26% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 33% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 17% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.