Cagliari
Sampdoria
The model leans Cagliari at 55%. Expected goals: Cagliari 1.65, Sampdoria 0.55. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 65%. Cagliari won 2 of their last 5; Sampdoria won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cagliari | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Sampdoria | 11% | 9.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cagliari. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 0.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.4%
- 2–015.1%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–110.0%
- 3–08.3%
- 2–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cagliari −1| Cagliari line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 24% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.