Predictions · Super Lig · outside model coverage

Galatasaray

32
Won

Göztepe

The model leans Galatasaray at 53%. Expected goals: Galatasaray 1.87, Göztepe 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%. Galatasaray won 2 of their last 6; Göztepe won 0 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Galatasaray60%1.68
XDraw24%4.12
2Göztepe16%6.17

Pick: Galatasaray. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.87 – 0.88
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.552%48%
3.530%70%
Both teams to scoreYes50%No50%

Most likely scores

  • 1011.9%
  • 2011.2%
  • 1110.5%
  • 219.8%
  • 306.9%
  • 006.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Galatasaray −1
Galatasaray lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.536%64%
-136%25%39%
-0.561%39%
061%22%17%
+0.583%17%
+183%12%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.