Samsunspor
Göztepe
The model leans Samsunspor at 39%. Expected goals: Samsunspor 1.30, Göztepe 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%. Samsunspor won 1 of their last 3; Göztepe won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Samsunspor | 42% | 2.40 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Göztepe | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Samsunspor. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.30 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–110.1%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–18.5%
- 2–08.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Samsunspor 0| Samsunspor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.