Samsunspor
Fenerbahçe
The model leans Fenerbahçe at 44%. Expected goals: Samsunspor 1.26, Fenerbahçe 1.74. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%. Samsunspor won 1 of their last 3; Fenerbahçe won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Samsunspor | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.88 | – | – | – |
| 2Fenerbahçe | 48% | 2.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fenerbahçe. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.26 – 1.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fenerbahçe −0.5| Samsunspor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 16% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 24% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 22% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.