Fenerbahçe
Konyaspor
The model leans Fenerbahçe at 55%. Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 2.07, Konyaspor 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%. Fenerbahçe won 5 of their last 6; Konyaspor won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fenerbahçe | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Konyaspor | 14% | 6.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fenerbahçe. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.07 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.9%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–07.6%
- 3–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fenerbahçe −1| Fenerbahçe line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| -1 | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 20% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.