Predictions · Super Lig · outside model coverage

Konyaspor

12
Lost

Kocaelispor

The model leans Konyaspor at 44%. Expected goals: Konyaspor 1.15, Kocaelispor 0.61. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 68%. Konyaspor won 0 of their last 4; Kocaelispor won 2 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Konyaspor47%2.11
XDraw34%2.94
2Kocaelispor19%5.40

Pick: Konyaspor. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.15 – 0.61
LineOverUnder
1.552%48%
2.526%74%
3.510%90%
Both teams to scoreYes31%No69%

Most likely scores

  • 1019.7%
  • 0017.2%
  • 1112.1%
  • 2011.3%
  • 0110.6%
  • 216.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Konyaspor −0.5
Konyaspor lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.521%79%
-121%28%51%
-0.549%51%
049%32%20%
+0.580%20%
+180%15%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.