Predictions · Super Lig · outside model coverage

Kocaelispor

20
Won

Amed Sportif

The model leans Kocaelispor at 38%. Expected goals: Kocaelispor 1.15, Amed Sportif 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%. Kocaelispor won 2 of their last 3; Amed Sportif won 2 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Kocaelispor41%2.44
XDraw33%3.04
2Amed Sportif26%3.84

Pick: Kocaelispor. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.15 – 0.86
LineOverUnder
1.560%40%
2.533%67%
3.515%85%
Both teams to scoreYes40%No60%

Most likely scores

  • 1015.4%
  • 0013.4%
  • 1113.3%
  • 0111.5%
  • 208.8%
  • 217.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Kocaelispor 0
Kocaelispor lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.518%82%
-118%24%58%
-0.542%58%
042%30%27%
+0.573%27%
+173%18%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.