Kocaelispor
Amed Sportif
The model leans Kocaelispor at 38%. Expected goals: Kocaelispor 1.15, Amed Sportif 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%. Kocaelispor won 2 of their last 3; Amed Sportif won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kocaelispor | 41% | 2.44 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Amed Sportif | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kocaelispor. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.15 – 0.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.4%
- 0–013.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–08.8%
- 2–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kocaelispor 0| Kocaelispor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 30% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.