Başakşehir
Kocaelispor
The model leans Başakşehir at 54%. Expected goals: Başakşehir 1.62, Kocaelispor 0.56. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%. Başakşehir won 2 of their last 4; Kocaelispor won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Başakşehir | 62% | 1.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Kocaelispor | 11% | 8.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Başakşehir. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.62 – 0.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.3%
- 2–014.8%
- 0–011.3%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–18.3%
- 3–08.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Başakşehir −1| Başakşehir line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 10% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.