Salzburg
Başakşehir
The model leans Başakşehir at 50%. Expected goals: Salzburg 1.20, Başakşehir 1.78. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. Salzburg won 5 of their last 6; Başakşehir won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Salzburg | 25% | 4.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.92 | – | – | – |
| 2Başakşehir | 50% | 2.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Başakşehir. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.20 – 1.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–28.0%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–06.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Başakşehir −0.5| Salzburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 15% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.