Başakşehir
Kasımpaşa
The model leans Başakşehir at 60%. Expected goals: Başakşehir 2.14, Kasımpaşa 0.76. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 52%. Başakşehir won 2 of their last 4; Kasımpaşa won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Başakşehir | 68% | 1.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.86 | – | – | – |
| 2Kasımpaşa | 11% | 9.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: Başakşehir. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.14 – 0.76| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.6%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–09.0%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Başakşehir −1.5| Başakşehir line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| -0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| 0 | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.