Kasımpaşa
Trabzonspor
The model leans Trabzonspor at 51%. Expected goals: Kasımpaşa 0.95, Trabzonspor 1.82. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. Kasımpaşa won 1 of their last 4; Trabzonspor won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kasımpaşa | 18% | 5.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Trabzonspor | 57% | 1.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Trabzonspor. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.95 – 1.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 0–111.4%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–06.3%
- 0–36.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Trabzonspor −1| Kasımpaşa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 13% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| +0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| +1 | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.