Trabzonspor
Başakşehir
The model leans Trabzonspor at 41%. Expected goals: Trabzonspor 1.69, Başakşehir 1.37. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Trabzonspor won 2 of their last 5; Başakşehir won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Trabzonspor | 44% | 2.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.86 | – | – | – |
| 2Başakşehir | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Trabzonspor. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.69 – 1.37| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.7%
- 0–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Trabzonspor −0.5| Trabzonspor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 21% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.