Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage

Kasımpaşa

11
Lost

Hull City

The model leans Kasımpaşa at 37%. Expected goals: Kasımpaşa 1.34, Hull City 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. Kasımpaşa won 1 of their last 4; Hull City won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Kasımpaşa38%2.60
XDraw29%3.43
2Hull City32%3.09

Pick: Kasımpaşa. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.21
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.547%53%
3.525%75%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.7%
  • 1010.5%
  • 019.5%
  • 218.5%
  • 007.8%
  • 127.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Kasımpaşa 0
Kasımpaşa lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.518%82%
-118%22%60%
-0.540%60%
040%27%34%
+0.566%34%
+166%19%14%
+1.586%14%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.