Coventry City
Hull City
The model leans Coventry City at 56%. Expected goals: Coventry City 2.20, Hull City 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 56%. Coventry City won 3 of their last 5; Hull City won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Coventry City | 65% | 1.55 | 1.75 | 55% | +10 |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.75 | 3.75 | 25% | −4 |
| 2Hull City | 14% | 6.94 | 4.75 | 20% | −6 |
Pick: Coventry City. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.20 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–07.5%
- 3–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Coventry City −1| Coventry City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 23% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 19% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.