Gençlerbirliği
Fenerbahçe
The model leans Fenerbahçe at 50%. Expected goals: Gençlerbirliği 1.05, Fenerbahçe 1.79. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. Gençlerbirliği won 2 of their last 3; Fenerbahçe won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gençlerbirliği | 21% | 4.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Fenerbahçe | 53% | 1.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fenerbahçe. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.05 – 1.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–06.2%
- 0–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fenerbahçe −0.5| Gençlerbirliği line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| +0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| +1 | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.