Erzurumspor FK
Galatasaray
The model leans Galatasaray at 50%. Expected goals: Erzurumspor FK 1.13, Galatasaray 1.76. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. Erzurumspor FK won 0 of their last 3; Galatasaray won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Erzurumspor FK | 23% | 4.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Galatasaray | 51% | 1.96 | – | – | – |
Pick: Galatasaray. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 1.76| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–06.3%
- 2–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Galatasaray −0.5| Erzurumspor FK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 15% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 23% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.